LIVE: Republicans leaders say they 'have the votes' to pass their massive tax bill

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and President Donald TrumpChip Somodevilla/Getty Images

• The Senate is aiming for a final vote on the gigantic Republican tax bill on Friday afternoon.
• While Republicans are still arguing over details, it appears they have enough votes.
• The bill would make huge changes to business and individual taxes.

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The final vote on the massive Senate Republican tax bill is fast approaching on Friday as GOP leaders scrambled to make last-minute changes to their bill.

A vote on Friday would come just three weeks after the bill, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), was introduced.

Republicans appear to have the votes to pass the TCJA, but the situation is still fluid. Sen. John Cornyn, the second-ranking Senate Republican, said Friday morning that Republicans had enough votes to pass it. Sen. Bob Corker, a Republican holdout on the TCJA, said the bill would likely get through with or without his vote.

"I realize that there’s probably enough votes right now to pass it," Corker told reporters.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is attempting to appease deficit hawks, moderates, and members concerned about small business all while keeping the TCJA within Senate rules.

As the day rolls on, we'll be following along live, so check back for updates.

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12:30: Susan Collins says that her compromise on the state and local tax deduction will be in the final bill.

Collins' change would allow people to deduct up to $10,000 of state and local property taxes from their federal bill. The current tax law allows people to deduct all of their state and local property, income, and sales taxes and the original Senate TCJA would have repealed that completely.

This would also make it easier for the Senate and House to reconcile their bills, since Collins' change is exactly the same as the House plan. The deduction is generally a bigger deal in the House since there are Republican members from areas like New York and California where state and local taxes are higher.

12:05: Jeff Flake, one of the last Republicans holdouts, is a "yes" on the bill.

AP

Flake, who had raised concerns about the bill's impact on the deficit, said in a statement that he would vote for the TCJA.

Flake said he was trying to get two things out of the tax bill: to "eliminate the $85 billion expensing budget gimmick" and a promise from GOP leaders to work with him on a bill to protect the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program.

"Having secured both of those objectives, I am pleased to announce I will vote in support the tax reform bill," Flake said.

12:00 pm: McConnell tells reporters "we have the votes"

Republicans seem pretty confident that they have the 50 votes necessary to pass the TCJA.

Sen. Ted Cruz told reporters it is "likely we will pass this bill later today."

11:30 am: The Tax Policy Center says the economic boost from the bill is much less than Republicans promised.

A new analysis from the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center shows that the TCJA would only boost US GDP by 0.7% in 2018. This falls far short of the amount needed for the bill to "pay for itself" as Republican leaders and Trump officials promised.

In fact, the TPC said that even with the additional revenue created from the economic boost the bill would rack up $1.23 trillion in new debt.

10:55 am: GOP leaders think the bill will pass, but Susan Collins pumps the breaks.

Sen. Susan Collins of Maine.Alex Wong/Getty Images

Senate GOP Whip John Cornyn told reporters that the leadership is feeling pretty good about the tax bill's prospects.

"We have at least 50 and we’re still working," he told reporters before a meeting of the Republican conference.

For Cornyn's predictions to be the case, Republican leaders need to have Sen. Susan Collins on board but she cautioned against making assumptions.

"I don’t know how Senator Cornyn can speak for me, I speak for myself," Collins told reporters but said they were making "good progress on the bill."

Debate begins and a quick recap

Jeff FlakeChip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Debate on the tax bill is expected to lead off with statements from the party leaders. The first amendment votes are scheduled for 11 a.m. ET.

The Senate will resume the drama that was suspended on Thursday, when GOP leaders called it a night to try and figure out the last-minute changes to their bill.

A final vote was possible Thursday night, but Republican leaders hit a snag when the Joint Committee on Taxation — the official congressional scorekeeper — released an analysis that showed the bill would only increase GDP 0.8% over 10 years.

The analysis also showed the bill would grow the federal deficit by $1 trillion over that timeframe even when accounting for that growth.

The analysis renewed concerns from Sens. Bob Corker and Jeff Flake about the legislation's potential effect on the deficit.

The pair's idea of a trigger that would increase federal revenue was ruled impermissible by the Senate parliamentarian, a kind of umpire for Senate rules, sending Republican leaders back to the drawing board.

McConnell and leadership got a boost when Sens. Ron Johnson and Steve Daines, who had been on the fence, said on Friday that they would support the bill. Johnson told Wisconsin radio station WISN that his support gave Republicans enough votes to pass the bill even without Corker and Flake.

Check here for a full recap of Thursday night's action»

Politics: Here's who Mitch McConnell needs to win over

Bob CorkerChip Somodevilla/Getty Images

While it appears that McConnell may have already secured the necessary 50 votes (with Vice President Mike Pence breaking the tie) with the addition of Johnson and Daines, here are some GOP senators on the fence.

• Bob Corker and Jeff Flake: The most unlikely votes for McConnell to get. These two are worried about the impact of the bill on the federal deficit. They had proposed a "trigger" to increase taxes if the bill did not deliver economic growth. After the Senate parliamentarian ruled that provision ineligible, Corker said he wanted more than $350 billion in additional revenue in the bill.
• Susan Collins: Collins introduced a slew of amendments ,including one that would reinstate part of the state and local tax deduction, that she said would need to be added to win over her support. She also wants the Alexander-Murray Obamacare stabilization passed along with the tax bill.
• Marco Rubio and Mike Lee: The pair introduced an amendment that would raise the corporate tax rate to 22% in order to make the child tax credit more generous. It is unclear if the pair would vote for the bill without the amendment.
• Ron Johnson and Steve Daines: Originally, it appeared that they were accepting of a 20% pass-through deduction rate — then they needed 23%. Who's to say they may not ask for more?

Process: Here's what's on tap

Orrin Hatch and Mitch McConnellAlex Wong/Getty Images

The bill is required to go through 20 hours of debate, split evenly between Republicans and Democrats.

As debate starts on Friday, there is roughly seven hours of debate left. After debate concludes, the Senate will have what is known as a vote-a-rama in which members will consider a slew of amendments in succession.

If senators use the full allotted time for debate, that would push the vote-a-rama to around 5 or 6 p.m ET. Republican can also choose to forgo their time, which would move the vote-a-rama up to about 2 p.m. ET if Democrats decide to use all of their debate time.

After the vote-a-rama, McConnell would submit the text of the finished bill as a substitute amendment, replacing the original bill text, and the final vote would take place.

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