National Hurricane Center
Hurricane Irma is intensifying as it makes its way across the Atlantic. It's now a major Category 3 storm, according to the National Hurricane Center.
It's too early to know whether the storm will make landfall in the Caribbean, Mexico, or the US, though some models have it pointed at the Eastern seaboard or Gulf of Mexico. But Irma has firmly captured the attention of meteorologists as Harvey has become a tropical depression.
Irma has the potential to become a Category 4 or even a Category 5 storm before reaching the Antilles next week, according to meteorologists.
"It's way too early to say for sure if Irma is going to have any impacts on the United States, but anytime the forecast models are predicting a potentially strong hurricane headed northwest across the tropical Atlantic, I'd pay attention," Phil Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in Atlantic hurricane forecasts, told Business Insider.
As of 5 a.m. Thursday, an analysis of Irma showed 70 mph winds, making it a tropical storm. By 11 a.m., sustained wind speeds had jumped to almost 100 mph, with some higher gusts — causing it to become a Category 2 hurricane. And by 4:30 p.m., Irma had sustained winds at 115 mph, making it the season's second major hurricane, classified as a Category 3 or above hurricane.
"It could be the strongest hurricane of the year," Michael Ventrice, a meteorological scientist at The Weather Company told Business Insider.
Projections for where Irma will go from here still vary greatly — if it turns north, it could veer off into the Atlantic, away from the US.
But certain projections show that a more direct path toward land is possible.
A combination of conditions — including a warm tropical Atlantic, a weak wind shear, and a change from drier to wetter weather — made it easy for Irma to pick up strength, according to Klotzbach. The storm could put us far ahead of the average accumulated cyclone energy (a measure of the energy of tropical cyclone systems) for this time of year, he said.
Both CSU and The Weather Company, the group behind the Weather Channel and Weather Underground, predicted an unusually active hurricane season this year. Irma is the fourth hurricane of 2017, but the average date of the fourth hurricane in a year is September 21. The peak of the season is around September 10.
Klotzbach said half of the season's cyclone energy usually occurs in September, meaning major hurricanes are likely to come.
Big hurricanes are usually defined by their wind force, but as we saw with Harvey — which made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane but caused most of its damage in the heavy rain that followed — the number doesn't always accurately predict a storm's devastation.
Ana Pelisson/Business Insider
Since Irma formed so far to the east, it's a real test for weather prediction, according to Ventrice.
A number of models have Irma headed a bit further north than the Gulf, either pointed towards the East Coast or potentially turning away. But Ventrice said that "some of the better performing model's that are correctly handling [Irma's] initial formation are more favorable towards the Gulf of Mexico," the region that has already suffered through Harvey.
By the middle of next week, forecasters will have a better idea of what to expect from Irma.
At the same time, meteorologists are also monitoring a disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that could bring additional rainfall to the already flooded Texas and Louisiana coasts sometime early next week.
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